Home : Research : Projects : Physical Modeling to Protect the Critical Infrastructure

The goal of this project is to provide a physical modeling study of a chemical release scenario that is realistic, includes complete physical modeling at several levels of detail, and could interface with training scenarios, management information systems, and decision support systems. The physical simulation of this realistic event will help us understand the physical aspects of how an event would unfold. Then better plans could be made to mitigate such an event and/or to respond appropriately to minimize losses in terms of human life and welfare, property, and economic effects, as well as to avoid damage to public confidence. By being prepared for such scenarios, we would hope to avoid any cascading disruption and mitigate potential consequences, thus providing a more resilient infrastructure. This type of research and development will improve protective capabilities by ensuring preparedness.

Specifically, this effort will concentrate on physical modeling and simulation scenarios involving protection of the critical infrastructures against the release of chemical, biological, radiological, or nuclear contaminants. We will construe a scenario suggested in the popular literature (U.S. News 2007). We will model this scenario on three different levels: 1) simulate the actual release by estimating likely emission sources, computing the resulting rates of contaminant emission, and doing computational fluid modeling of the release itself, 2) simulate the flow and transport of contaminant about the structures and terrain using high fidelity computational fluid dynamics models coupled with state-of-the-science Lagrangian particle models, and 3) simulate the long-range transport and dispersion of contaminant and estimate the impact on the affected population using refined transport and dispersion modeling tools forced by finely nested mesoscale meteorological models. These three levels of modeling will comprise an entire physical event scenario. They will serve as input to effects models in collaboration with our UK colleagues in the Defense Science and Technology Laboratory (Dstl) and their university collaborators.

The specific objectives of this research are to:

• Construct a realistic scenario of a large scale toxic release in a densely populated urban area
• Provide accurate source modeling
• Conduct high fidelity computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modeling in the immediate region of interest
• Embed a Lagrangian particle model (LPM) as post-processing for the near-source CFD output to estimate details of the contaminant transport and dispersion
• Construct a realistic mesoscale modeling scenario and model the flow in the larger region of interest
• Model the long range transport and dispersion of the contaminant, forced by the mesoscale meteorology data and including urban features
• Compute Lagrangian particle transport within the mesoscale meteorological fields for comparison with the transport and dispersion modeling results
• Conduct an uncertainty analysis of the modeling results
• Provide three-dimensional visualization of the event
• Use the model results to estimate the effects on the human population

We expect that such a detailed modeling scenario will give new insight into how such an event would unfold physically. This scenario could then be coupled with crowd behavior models and used to develop management decision tools. This proposal could be a precursor to developing rapid, real-time models readily available to situation managers, such as one could develop into a hand-held modeling capability. By using our refined physical modeling technology, decision makers have better information to provide situational awareness, and thus, a better decision process. Thus, this modeling information will provide the data necessary to preserve lives and property through recommendations of appropriate actions.

The previous experience of the co-PIs will greatly enhance the probability of project success. All have experience with modeling in these contexts and have produced many successful studies. The computer resources necessary to accomplish this work are readily available within the PSU Applied Research laboratory and Meteorology Department.

The successful completion of this project will lead to a full case scenario that will be useful for training exercises, interfacing with other models and management information systems, and analyzing potential impacts. The expected long-term impacts of this project are improvements to the physical modeling technology so that decision processes will be improved, thus better protecting human life and property. Our long-range view is that this work will eventually lead to a hand-held modeling/communication capability that would be available to the people who must make the decisions and communicate how to best protect the U.S. critical infrastructure.

Plume modeling for first responders.

Computational fluid dynamics Lagrangian particle models Long-range transport and dispersion of contaminants

• Pending

Sue Ellen Haupt, Applied Research Lab
Mario Trujillo, Applied Research Lab
L. Joel Peltier, Applied Research Lab
David R. Stauffer, Applied Research Lab

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